Griff says...Not So Secret Agents - Licensed to Kill

Now we come to the topic of my favorite rant – player Agents. No doubt all sports have agents but somehow baseball is more notoriously famous for agent dealings. You never really hear about agent issues in football and basketball, but in baseball it is a yearly ritual.

When the Curt Flood Supreme Court case created an arbitration system for player disputes, and subsequent court challenges by pitchers Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally were won, free agency was created. No longer were teams considered to “own” players. From that time on, and especially after the players’ union was formed a little later, agents became an inevitability.

There are about 300 MLB agents certified and available for player representation. Others go through a certification process if not already on the list. It is a high stakes business and the agents have had a large part in driving up player salaries and as a direct result, baseball ticket prices. There are no set fee arrangements. You have to find a way to justify the incredible payrolls, and the fans have taken the hit.

Salaries have become almost surreal and the majority of everyday baseball fans resent it a great deal. Some blame the players; some blame the owners, some both. Most fans do not feel that players deserve to make the astronomical salaries of today. The average baseball salary has increased from a million a year to over $3 million per year. Remember, that is just the average. The only ones making less than that are backup players, role players, old veterans trying to hang on, and some younger players just emerging on the scene. Tack on the fact that most are guaranteed contracts and you have a motivational issue as well. How did that ever start? Why should a player be guaranteed salary each year no matter what happens? He can get hurt, released, or traded and he is still guaranteed his money. Don’t you wish you could get that in your career of choice? Where is the incentive for them to perform until they are in the final year of their contract? Why can’t they just take out disability and insurance policies like everyone else if they are worried about injuries?

Although initial high draft picks do get signing bonuses, agents are not much of a factor until a player hits the free agent market, typically after their sixth full season of being on the 40 man roster. From there on, look out.

There is a select group of super agents who represent player contracts in excess of $50 million. This group of less than ten collectively represents over 40% of the $2.5 billion being paid out recently. I don’t know what the commission rates are but even if you put them conservatively at 10%, there is a lot of money to be made by top agents.

Tops on the agent list are the Greenberg brothers, whose fluency in Spanish has solidified their ranking. Their top position has earned their clients higher salaries as it is documented that their clients make more than twice as much as players with similar statistics in the free agent marketplace.

Other high ranking baseball agents include the Hendricks brothers and of course, the notorious Scott Boras. Boras is easily the most feared and I would say, hated, agent. His firm represents players totaling over $266 million in salary. He has been known to ask for exorbitant salaries, hold out until the last minute, possibly make up additional suitors to drive the market up, and even bypass the GMs and go right to the owners as in the recent Damon/Detroit signing.

Boras was actually a minor league player himself once, noteworthy in that he has insider respect and knowledge amongst players, GMs and owners. Boras really hit the spotlight when he negotiated A Rod’s insane $252 million contract back in 2000. In all fairness, I also lay a large part of the blame on the Texas Rangers owner at the time. That contract was unheard of, ridiculous, outrageous, and escalated other player salaries upward immediately. My research discovered that Boras’s clients earn a premium of 40% over peer typical peer comparisons. No wonder so many players want him on their side.

My beef with agents is simply that they only represent their clients’ interests and it is often not in the best interest of baseball and the fans. Since professional baseball exists because of the fans, I deem this to be a bad thing.

It is harder today to maintain fan fervor and loyalty than in the first century of baseball. Essentially for most teams, half of the players are different each year. You can lock up a superstar who is a fan favorite for perhaps 5-7 years at best. Then the highest bidder will snag them away. Chipper Jones is an exception to the rule and you have to admire his personal loyalty and desire to remain a Brave. He most definitely could have made more money by accepting larger contracts with other big market clubs if he wanted to. But not only does he like the stability and have great respect and loyalty to the Braves, he has a sense of loyalty to baseball history itself and feels the constant wheeling and dealing is bad for the game.

That is where I’m coming from. I have nothing against players becoming millionaires. But at some point it is just spiteful to the loyal fans and disappointing to kids who look up to them, when they nonchalantly take a little more money, or sometimes a lot more money, to go elsewhere. Johnny Damon, or Boras, totally blew the opportunity to play another year with the Yankees and try to win two more World Series. Why did Boras have to be so greedy that now his client is stuck in Detroit? Boras started his negotiation process early by telling the Yankees not to even make an offer if they were going to offer anything less than what he made the prior year. Damon had a good year, but $13 million a year for a 270 hitter who has pop at the short Yankees porch? Really, get serious. He ended up with about $7 million a year. The Yankees offered that for two years I believe so if he had any team loyalty he could have stayed. You can say this is just an agent mistake but I think the player has to intervene when they want something to get done, as did A Rod when he ended up with the Yankees on a new contract a couple years ago.

You can’t tell me that the constant money chasing is good for their families either, so I would say the players have their priorities misplaced when they do so. It is often times pride and ego that cause players to take larger contracts and move elsewhere. They frequently say it is because they want more for their family but how much more does a family need when they are already making $5-10 million per year? Too often the hidden reason is that they want to be one of the highest paid players at their position. That smacks of egotism.

The larger the salaries the more pressure on the owners to raise prices to prevent losses. The more prices increase, the lower the fan attendance. The lower the fan attendance, the harder it is to get the better players to your team because you have less money to offer. Hence the recent problems of smaller market clubs like Pittsburgh and Milwaukee.

But agents seemingly have no concern or sense for that issue at all. They want to maximize the contracts for their players. If their player has to move, so be it. It’s not like the agent has to move with them. That would be a novel idea.

Maybe we all need agents too. Who says they are only for the sports and entertainment world? Perhaps we need agents to represent the plumbers and salesmen and contractors and construction workers. Why not? You could certainly have a pool of candidates, measure performance and statistics, secure references and negotiate contracts a year or multiple years at a time. It might be nice to think about yourself commanding a bit higher price and going to the highest bidder for your services, and not having to worry as much about unemployment. But at the same time, if every job type had agents, then prices would go up across all industries. I can’t believe that from an economic standpoint that would be good for our economy. So if it is not good for everyone then intuitively I suggest it is not good for baseball either.

We will probably never get away from agents and the wild negotiating of outrageous deals. But at some point, it will become obvious that the game has been seriously hurt. I for one miss the old days of seeing the same players on my team year after year. I miss the traditional rivalries with other teams and their stars that would come to town every year. Perhaps the answer for the fans is to follow college sports more than professional sports. Indeed I sense that has happened and had a negative impact on attendance in pro sports. Unfortunately, the best college players are now at their schools no more than one or two years either because they are eager to make money and as soon as they are ready to go pro the agents snap them up into the market.

There seems to be no answer in sight. It is harder each year for fans to stay loyal. But the Braves fan loyalty is ranked #5 in baseball and I am personally trying to hang in there in spite of my annoyances with agents and their negative impact on the game. I guess I will have to accept it as long as I can complain about it from time to time.

See you on my next blog. Griff says…later.

Griff says... Speed Kills

I’ve been thinking about an article about the importance of speed in MLB for quite awhile. When you analyze baseball history you will see that historical trends are evident. In other words, history repeats itself. Over the decades we moved from an emphasis on offense, to pitching, to speed, then back to pitching, and now offense again.

I’m not saying pitching is less important but rather that plus offense is now becoming more important. Let’s face it, the Yanks won because of their powerful offense and pretty good pitching. The Phillies were champs two years ago because of their offense and good pitching at the right time. But it certainly looks as though we can make a strong statement that superior offense beats good pitching regularly now. In spite of stellar pitching by the Braves last year, they only came into contention when their offense led the NL the second half in runs scored.

One of the main reasons this trend has reversed itself in recent years is because of the clamp on steroids and HGH. Ten years ago it was all about home runs. Everyone was trying to understand why there were so many home runs. Many people said the balls were being made different. Others said the bats were being made different. Still others said that pitching was down and some said the hitters were just getting bigger and stronger. But it appears now that the main reason for home runs flying out of the parks at record individual numbers was likely due to steroids and HGH. But that era is finished or at least dying out. The home run totals have declined over the last several years, or at least leveled off, and that is a direct result of the reduced use of steroids and HGH.

If we take the trend to the next logical level it will be an emphasis on speed. If you can’t sit back and wait for the two or three run homer anymore, then you have to learn to manufacture runs. But just having speed is not enough. You have to use it and implement a speed strategy. Having a speedster like Nate McLouth who has an incredibly successful stolen base percentage doesn’t do any good when he doesn’t get on base and doesn’t attempt steals often. (Please, somebody tell Bobby Cox to read this article.)

Some organizations have already made speed a successful strategy. The Angels had little in home run power last year but led the league in batting average. They scored by stealing, advancing the runner, sacrifices, taking an extra base, and in general, being more aggressive in the way they approached the offensive strategy. I think that will become more prevalent in the near future and if you look at the recent draft classes, more speed picks are being made, even by the Braves. In our last year’s draft we took a couple speed guys.

One of the attributes about speed that you have to like is that it is easily identifiable. You don’t teach speed to any measurable degree so they either have it at an early age or they don’t. It is not like the guessing that goes on when you draft pitchers. If someone is fast at the minor league level and steals a lot of bases, it is likely they will be similarly successful in the bigs.

Even though the Phillies are known as a power offense, they also utilize speed to a much larger degree than is commonly known. Philadelphia was fourth in all of baseball with 136 steals last year. To put it in perspective the Braves had 58 and finished 27th out of 30 teams. In fact, of the top 10 teams in steals last year, 8 of them were in the playoffs recently. So you have to agree that it is becoming an important factor. Chase Utley specifically worked this offseason to give himself more flexibility that translates into better range at second and also to steal more bases. Yunel Escobar talked about stealing 20 bases this year as a primary goal.

There is a team speed approach and an individual speed approach. Those teams just mentioned in the top 10 last year use a team speed approach. They steal bases with many different players, not all of which are known to be speedsters. If you use the right approach and situation, even slower players can steal bases. Let’s not forget McCann and Chipper have both been successful stealing recently when they ran at certain times.

In the Braves exhibition opener on Tuesday, Jason Heyward stole third. Earlier in the game it looked like two instances where a Braves runner went from first to third on a hit and run. That is something I would love to see Cox do more often this year. It’s exciting and creates momentum and opportunities.

But along with the increased use of speed you also need more situation awareness and understanding of what is needed as a batter at any given time. In the same season exhibition opener this week, the Braves had an opportunity to break the game open in the third inning I believe. We had runners on second and third with less than two outs. All we needed was a sacrifice fly from someone to score a run. But Infante, Mitch Jones and McLouth all failed to do so. That is the difference between manufacturing runs and trying to be the hero.

Who remembers when Ricky Henderson played and how much his threat of speed terrorized other teams and changed the whole dynamic of the game? The same occurred with Maury Wills, and Lou Brock, and others. Yes they were fast, but when you implement a team speed approach and are more aggressive, you put more pressure on the other team. More often than not it works. Here’s why.

Most pitchers are right-handed. Most righties do not have plus moves to first base. When a runner is on base, it is easy to distract the pitcher with the threat of speed. Even if they don’t pay attention to you (like Braves pitchers are notoriously known for) then it works in the favor of the runner also. Either the pitcher gets distracted and makes a mistake to the batter, or he ignores the runner and turns an average speed baserunner into a stealing threat. Add to that the woeful average percentage caught stealing and you can conclude that catchers are also at a disadvantage. It’s just like free throw shooting. If you can only throw out a runner 30-40% of the time, you are going to fail most of the time and the other team will want to put you into those situations more often. There’s no reason why McLouth, Escobar, Diaz, Cabrera and Heyward can’t each steal 15-20 bases this year if opportunities are seized. And Chipper, Prado and Infante could steal another 10. Why is this not a good idea especially when we are concerned about our power hitting?

When you look at teams that are most dangerous, especially in the National League because we don’t have the Designated Hitter, it is usually the teams with a leadoff guy who has dangerous speed. Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are often the difference-makers when they are on base and running. Even though neither has a stellar on base percentage, they are in the leadoff spot because they have speed and when they are on base they will usually try to steal. National League leadoff hitters are at somewhat of a disadvantage when it comes to OBP because they are too often in worse situations than their American League counterparts. That is the difference between having a pitcher hit ninth in front of you a couple times a game versus a designated hitter. The teams with the speed approach are able to steal and take the extra base on a hit, advance the runner more often, and score from second nearly always.

As we saw in the exhibition opener this week, when the Braves can’t get the leadoff guy on, we really limit our chances. Even more so when the leadoff guy strikes out and creates no chance at all by not putting the ball in play. Heyward’s steal of third could have made the difference in the game had we been able to get him in. Imagine how much more media publicity there would have been then?

I’ve been pushing this subject throughout the offseason and will continue to do so. The Braves need a leadoff hitter who can get on base consistently and steal bases, take the extra base, score from second on virtually any ball through the infield, and tag and get to second and third on long fly balls. If we don’t have this performance from McLouth, and if we don’t find someone else who can fill this role, all the other factors and question marks could go well for the Braves and we may still not win enough games. I have said it before and will reiterate here. The leadoff man is either the first or second most important role in the offense. If we struggle at the leadoff position we will struggle all year.

My recommendation is to platoon Diaz and Cabrera at the leadoff position. Both are aggressive, good baserunners with pretty good onbase percentages and make consistent contact with the ball. That is our best alternative until Jordan Schafer is ready again.

My next blog will be on Monday. The topic will be about Agents and Issues. Griff says…later.

Griff says...Frank Wren Rights and Wrongs

I’m prepared for all the shots that will come from commenters on this article. One thing you can say about Frank Wren for sure is that he produces more furious debate than almost any other Braves topic. It seems to stem from his hit or miss transactions as you will see below when you review some of them. He has a penchant for doing controversial deals with PR implications. That’s why a Wren discussion is like a political debate.

Let me begin by saying I have not been a fan of Wren’s and have frequently been critical of him. While preparing to write this article I asked myself, why? Certainly I can list a few less than favorite transactions but I have to say candidly it comes more from my perception and impression of him. In my opinion, he comes off aloof, lacks baseball knowledge depth, has a pseudo optimistic attitude about him, seems superficial to me, somewhat ingenuine, and a bit too smooth and cool. Essentially, I guess I’m just annoyed with his persona.

Before he became GM he was Assistant to Schuerholz for almost eight years. Perhaps I was hoping or expecting that he would just be another John and everything would continue as it had been. He is not Schuerholz, not only in style but in substance. Schuerholz had a knack for getting deals done that surprised you and on paper and even later, it seemed that the Braves clearly won the deal. Often times I found myself wondering why the opposing GM would do such a deal. In contrast, I find myself wondering the same on some of Wren’s deals as if I were watching from the opposition’s point of view.

Contrary to statements from a recent commenter (heckler) on one of my blog postings, there is no way to judge what Wren does except by the actual transaction and subsequent result. Everything else is opinion. So let’s be clear that everything I am saying here is just my opinion. It would seem that should be obvious for a blog writer, but since my commenter felt his statements were facts not opinions, I thought I would try to make it clear to everyone.

There is not enough time or room for me to evaluate every transaction Wren has made over the last couple years as there are dozens of them. Some are minor and some are substantial. So, I’m going to point out just the ones that are noteworthy and that I have an opinion about. To be sure, it is often difficult to come up with any real assessment of whether a trade was good or bad until years later. But this article can’t wait that long. I’m going to examine certain transactions, make a comment, and grade Wren on the transaction. Then at the end of the article I will give him an overall grade.

• Acquired Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez from Detroit for Edgar Renteria. Fabulous trade. JJ is a potential Cy Young candidate, Hernandez has potential and was the key player shipped to Pittsburgh in the McLouth acquisition. Renteria has faded into the sunset with Detroit and the Giants. Grade - A+

• Acquired Omar Infante and Will Ohman from the Cubs for Jose Ascanio. Infante is one of the premier bench/utility players in the league, Ohman and Ascanio did okay for awhile, then were traded. Grade – A

• Acquired Casey Kotchman and Steven Marek from the Angels for Mark Teixeira. Ouch! Wren made his usual statement that there just weren’t a lot of takers available. It seems he says that whenever he can’t make a good deal. Grade – F

• Acquired Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan from the White Sox for Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, et al. Vazquez had a career year and along with Logan, was packaged to New York this year in a different deal. Flowers still has plus big league potential. Because Vazquez was stellar...Grade – A

• Signed Kenshin Kawakami for 3 yrs, 23 million. I like KK but we overpaid for a 5 pitcher. KK did okay last year and may be better this year and will get help with Saito on board. Both should feel more comfortable. Maybe it was political. Grade – B minus

• Signed Derek Lowe for four years, $60 million. Lowe had a poor finish and off year overall but will likely bounce back in 2010. But how do we deal him if not, and how effective can he be for that money? He’s probably already the 3 or 4 pitcher in our rotation regardless of where Cox places him. He was totally overpaid and this deal overburdened the Braves for years even if he performs. You could say at the time Wren felt he had to do the Lowe and KK deals or end up with no rotation at all. But…Grade – C minus

• Signed Garrett Anderson for 1 year, $2.5 million. Cox liked him so that’s all I will say. But we could have had Abreu or Dunn as both were available at the time. I still say if we had signed Dunn we would have solved our power problem for two years while waiting for Freeman to come up. This was totally a stop gap measure that didn’t pan out from my viewpoint. Grade – C minus

• Released Tom Glavine. The right move done the wrong way at the wrong time. This was atrocious PR and resulted in many negative comments from Glavine, Smoltz and Chipper. Yes it got Hanson up sooner but it was a total lesson in disaster on how not to release a veteran, Hall of Fame player. Hanson should have made the team out of ST anyway and we could have had the four more wins we needed to make the playoffs. We were just trying to postpone his arbitration years. Grade – D

• Acquired Nate McLouth from Pittsburgh for Morton, Locke and Gorkys Hernandez. I liked Hernandez and hated to see him go. Locke is still a work in progress and Morton was nothing special. McLouth is overrated from my viewpoint but we had to do something because of Schafer’s problem. Could have stayed internal but Wren thought this was a steal. McLouth hasn’t stolen much so far. If McLouth has a good year in 2010 and becomes part of a good trade later this year, then I like it. Let’s just say so far I’m not a McLouth fan. Grade – B

• Acquired Ryan Church from the Mets for Jeff Francoeur. A wash initially but maybe Frenchy will be okay and certainly not worse than Church. Often overlooked is that for the entirety of 2009 Frenchy’s numbers were 280/15/76. Those are more than decent numbers and would rank him pretty high on our team last year, just not what we were looking for from Frenchy based on his early career performance. Overall it was a good move for Frenchy. I’m not saying we should have kept Frenchy, but …Grade – C

• Acquired Adam LaRoche from Pittsburgh for Casey Kotchman. Kotchman was shipped to Boston where he was a bench player, showed little ever, then was traded this year again. LaRoche had a phenomenal second half but we couldn’t keep him because he wanted too much. That was not smart on his part, over-estimating his market value. Grade – A

• Acquired Eric O’Flaherty off waivers from Seattle. An absolute steal as Eric had a great year and is an important piece of the bullpen for this year. Grade – A+

• Failed to sign Smoltz who went to the Red Sox after some grumbling. Again, the right move done the wrong way. Not graceful in the handling. More bad publicity. You can say publicity is not important but it affects future player transactions if they get a negative view of management, as well as fan support and attendance. Grade – D

• Agreed to terms with Scott Proctor. No downside, all upside. I’m not sold on Proctor as his career numbers are not very special. Remains to be seen. Cox likes him. Grade – B

• Agreed to 3 year contract with Hudson at a home town discount. This had good publicity as Hudson is extremely active in the community and well-liked. Supposedly he is back to normal or better. Keep in mind he has never had a stellar year with the Braves as he did with the A’s. This one remains to be seen and could be either an A+ grade or D grade if it is a disaster because once we signed Huddy we had to do something with either Lowe or Vazquez. So it is really this deal that caused us to trade Vazquez, outside of any poor negotiating that may have occurred by Wren while trying to move Lowe. If not for this deal our starting rotation might have been Vazquez, JJ, Hanson, Lowe and KK. Think about that awhile. I don’t think we can actually grade this one yet, so…Grade ?

• Traded Soriano to Tampa Bay for Jesse Chavez. I was not a Soriano fan anyway and it appeared Wren got caught guessing wrong when Soriano accepted arbitration. Of course he said he was prepared but when he accepted the first offer that came along less than a week later, my feeling is he felt he was caught with his pants down and immediately bought the first belt he could find. So far everyone has a lot of praise for Chavez and his repertoire. If he becomes a key bullpen piece this year, it was a good deal. We did get rid of salary which was needed because we have a lot of bucks tied up in our bullpen. Soriano had good numbers but still worried me whenever he entered the game. Grade – B

• Agreed to terms with Billy Wagner, then shortly Takashi Saito on one year deals from the Red Sox. Gonzalez made me nervous anyway because he was inconsistent and unpredictable. You can’t have that in a closer or setup man. We lost draft pick compensation but I love Wagner and predict he will be a critical factor in our re-entry to the playoffs. Not sure about Saito but we have other arms available. Grade – A

• Failed to sign Jake Peavy. I felt this deal fell through because Wren could not create the right package and offer. This is an instance where I have criticized him in the past for not having any creativity. Our rotation ended up great so the importance was diminished. I’m not saying I wanted to lose Hanson or Escobar in the trade, but this deal for me showed Wren’s lack of closing skills. I believe he could have left them out of the package and come up with sufficient talent to get the deal done. Grade - C

• Failed to sign AJ Burnett. We were drastically outbid and nothing we could do about it. Probably turned out for the best. Grade – No grade. Not his fault.

• Failed to sign Rafael Furcal. Either this was Furcal’s agent’s fault, Furcal’s fault, Wren’s fault, or a combination. Created much ill will and bad publicity and left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths. But I wasn’t excited about getting Furcal back anyway because I believe he is highly overrated since he left Atlanta. Grade – N/A

• Agreed to terms with Peter Moylan. I really like Moylan and the fact that his agent is Boras says something about this deal. Grade – A

• Agreed to terms with Troy Glaus on a one year contract. Great upside for a low cost. I actually think this will pay off. No one was talking about Glaus at the time so this came in under the radar. Maybe you could say you can’t grade this one yet but it had little downside, so…Grade – B Plus

• Agreed to terms with Eric Hinske on a one year contract. Excellent move not only for his ability and versatility and money paid, but his experience, clubhouse and bench value. Grade – A

• Numerous subtle minor league moves to restock and provide potential backup for key injuries. This includes Mitch Jones, JR House, Brent Clevlen, JC Boscan, Joe Thurston, and Mariano Gomez. Smart moves with little to pay. Grade - A

• Acquired Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino from the Yankees for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. Are you serious? This directly reflected Wren’s inability to make a deal for Lowe in spite of saying many times that he had several suitors and that he was confident they could move him. Dunn may be a bullpen arm next year and Vizcaino may be a high level starter several years from now, but losing Vazquez really hurt. The only possible way this is a good deal is if Hudson has an ace level year, Cabrera comes as billed, and Vizcaino becomes a 1,2 or 3 starter within 5 years. My grade here is more a reflection of not making a deal for Lowe. You can say no one would pay for him, but then why did Wren express such confidence numerous times that he would be able to deal Lowe? And yes you can say that money was freed up in this deal which led to the Glaus signing but there was enough money left anyway. At the moment…Grade – F

• Acquired Edward Salcedo, 18 year old international shortstop prospect. No one knows much about him but he is considered one of the top international players. On that basis alone, this is a great signing as he can essentially replace the top 10 draft pick we lost in an earlier offseason trade transaction. Some say he reminds them of Hanley Ramirez or even A-Rod. He probably projects as a third baseman eventually as he is 6’3” and a strong hitter already. Not sure Wren really gets credit for this but as a GM I guess he is responsible so…Grade - A

If I left out or overlooked any moves you wish to discuss, feel free. I have to say that Wren was directly responsible for rebuilding a great pitching rotation last year after all the horrible mishaps from the year before. In that sense alone the results of his deals were remarkable. However, my feeling is that others could have done the transactions differently and better. Much of our pitching success last year goes to a career year by Vazquez, JJ and Hanson and Wren had nothing to do with that.

It would be quite an exercise to further give each transaction a weighted value to be fair, so I won’t get into that.

Surprisingly, my assessment as I review all these transactions is to give Wren an overall Grade of B Plus. Not great but pretty good. Certainly I hate the deals that were F’s, and that is where his controversies were created. But I like a lot of the deals.

So there it is. Believe me I did not grade him relatively high to satisfy the ego of my earlier heckler who over-reacted to a couple of my negative Wren comments that were directed at specific deals. It is perfectly fair to criticize a bad move as long as you give credit for good ones and criticize in an unbiased manner.

My next blog will be on Thursday. The topic will be The Emerging Importance of Speed. Griff says…later.

Griff says...The Jordan Schafer Rollercoaster

The Braves developed a top minor league prospect two years ago who was rated #17 out of baseball’s top 100 prospects. He was one of those rare players who had all the tools in the shed. That is he had plus ability to run, throw, field, hit for average, and hit for power. He was a five tool player. He projected to soon be a starting outfielder for the Braves for many years and a budding star. He had confidence, poise, work ethic, determination and patience. No I’m not talking about Jason Heyward. I’m talking about Jordan Schafer. That was the beginning of his rollercoaster ride.

From there he went through a 50 game HGH suspension in 2008. No evidence was ever mentioned to say that he took them but rather only that he was linked to them. Perhaps he associated with someone involved. But it held up regardless and he never complained or whined about it. As he entered 2009 Spring Training, his ranking had already dropped to 67 on MLB’s top 100 prospect list. That was actually two slots below Freddie Freeman, and Heyward had already vaulted to #3. The rollercoaster had hit bottom.

But Jordan had a killer spring in 2009 and beat out Josh Anderson who was faster, had performed reasonably well at leadoff for a couple months with Atlanta in 2008 and who some thought might win the job instead. Schafer started the year with a bang, hitting two home runs on the road against Philly in the first series of the year, including a home run in his first at bat. He looked like he was on a fast track to become the prototype leadoff hitter the Braves wanted, and a potential all-star with his great all-around game. The roller coaster had peaked again.

The fourth game of the season, in his last at bat, he heard a pop in his wrist and it was all downhill on the roller coaster ride from there. I was amazed at how he struggled and especially all the strikeouts. It hurt watching him play as he swung hard and looked like the ball disappeared through his bat somehow each strikeout. How his ego and psyche were able to hold up over two months of embarassing and frustrating results was beyond my understanding. He was sent back to the minors, then taken out of the lineup here and there with nagging wrist problems, then finally slated for surgery and his year ended. The roller coaster had bottomed out again.

Once it was all over he finally admitted that he should have let management know how serious his injury was. But he manned up and decided to tough it out. I think the Braves should have forced an MRI much earlier and found the problem. Cox even admitted that he knew he was playing hurt but that he wanted him in for his stellar defense and thought the lineup could come up with enough runs to make up the difference. Uh...no! Clearly no one strikes out as much as he did without something going on and they should have known there was at least the possibility of a more serious injury.

The question now is, can he get off the roller coaster ride and jump onto an oriental 200 mph train the rest of his journey? Throughout this debacle Jordan has shown amazing resilience, some level of deep faith, unwavering self-confidence, and is ready for the challenge. He has stated over and over he knows his abilities. In interviews he does not even sound like he worries about it. Since all that happened, he now has McLouth and Cabrera seemingly blocking his path for the future with the Braves. But he is not concerned. He just wants to play baseball and maintains that everything will take care of itself. That sounds like something Cox would say.

Even throughout all of this, in my opinion, his skills have already proven to be superior to his competition. He is a fearless defender, runs down many difficult balls, has a fantastic arm with great accuracy, and is very aggressive in his defensive play. We need that. I’m tired of seeing McLouth pull up short rather than dive for a ball or worry about the outfield wall, allow runners to score from second without even an attempt, and generally have an overall conservative approach to playing center field. You can say his hamstring caused that except for the fact he was playing that way before it was hurt. No, that is his style and why he has a Gold Glove in my opinion. He doesn't take chances so his percentage is naturally higher.

Center field should be your most aggressive outfielder. They can create defensive excitement equivalent to what a base-stealer can do when on-base. Jordan has that ability. Offensively he can be a 300/360/500/800 player with 25-30 stolen bases. He can bunt and is not strictly a pull hitter. I see him as a star for 10 years.

I for one believe in this kid. When he never complained at all about the HGH incident I knew he had special makeup. What 21 year old kid would not have been screaming and pointing the finger at others and denying he did anything wrong? Jordan never said a word and was never quoted in the media with any kind of denial statements. He just sucked it up and took his punishment. He felt he was wrong and should not have been involved so he accepted the punishment given without a fight. In an era with Clemens and Bonds and A-Rod and McGwire still unable to accept full responsibility, that is very refreshing for me.

I’m going to root for him and support him. Personally, I feel he is still the future lead-off man and center fielder for the Braves. He plays better defense, has a more aggressive attitude, is faster, and has better overall skills than either McLouth or Cabrera. Of course, an increasingly important factor is that it will be years before he makes millions and becomes unaffordable even if he becomes a superstar.

My hope for Jordan is that he has another killer spring, continues in triple A for a few months, then gets the call up to the bigs again. I’m not saying I want McLouth or Cabrera to fail. We need them to perform. But if everyone starts off with strong performances, it gives the Braves options before the trade deadline to improve the team. I can see McLouth or Cabrera packaged in a deal for a bat or to fill some other need that may appear by then. Both have desirable contracts for another team and with strong performances will generate serious interest.

Of course there is always the possibility of trading Jordan instead. Who wouldn’t want a player with a tool shed of skills who is back on track and still young? However, with payroll concerns and his upside, and management's continued statements that they feel he will be a big part of our future, I like his chances to stay with the team.

Whatever happens, Jordan, I wish you the best, and can’t wait to see you perform again. You are a very exciting player and I admire your courage and determination. Go out and prove to everyone you are still a potential star and good things will happen for you. Let’s all support him this year for a strong comeback. If for some reason you have never seen him play, he is the one with all the tattoos up and down both arms to the shoulder. So he shouldn’t be hard to recognize if you get a close view when he is not wearing long sleeves.

My next blog will be on Monday. The topic will be about Frank Wren. I’ll be wearing my catcher’s gear to protect me from all the nasty comments I’m expecting. Griff says…later.